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Blackleg getting a kick out of climate change

Wednesday, 12 September 2007

As fears of the disruption caused by climate change focuses on armageddon-like scenarios of plunging ice caps pushing whole countries under water, researchers at Herts-based Rothamsted Research have found that the range and severity of a plant disease known as blackleg, that causes losses worth almost half a billion pounds worldwide every year, is increased by global warming. Phoma stem canker is an important disease in oilseed rape and other brassicas which causes seedling death, lodging or early senescence in Australia, Canada and Europe. The Rothamsted study, published in the Royal Society journal Interface, used a weather-based model developed to predict the start and severity of epidemics of phoma stem canker to investigate the consequences of predicted climate change scenarios. The team of biologists and mathematicians found that warmer winters significantly advanced the date of stem canker appearance in spring and increased the severity of canker before harvest. They also predicted that epidemics will spread north from England to Scotland, where cankers do not currently occur on oilseed rape. “The phoma stem canker forecast model was developed as a tool to help guide fungicide applications timing by farmers and their advisers,” explained Dr Neal Evans, a plant pathologist at Rothamsted Research. “We realised we could extend the use of the model by incorporating climate change scenario data to examine how global warming might impact on future epidemics.” These results provide a stimulus to develop models to predict effects of climate change on other plant diseases, especially in delicately balanced agricultural or natural ecosystems. Such predictions can be used to guide policy and practice in adapting to effects of climate change on food security and wildlife.

 

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