Business Weekly - Cambridge, UK

The Slavonina Grebe is one species not faring well from the rise in temperatures. Pic courtesy of the RSPB

Researchers from the RSPB in Bedfordshire, Cambridge University and Durham University found that while birds such as the Cirl Bunting and Dartford Warbler are becoming more common across a wide range of habitats in Britain, some northern species, such as the Fieldfare and Redwing, are not faring as well and their numbers are falling.

The researchers, whose paper published in the Royal Society journal Biology Letters, used nesting information from 42 of the UK’s rarest nesting birds between 1980 and 2004 in relation to changes in climatic suitability simulated using climatic envelope models.

“Our paper clearly shows that wildlife has been affected by climate change over the last 25 years – some nature reserves in southern Britain now have an almost ‘Mediterranean’ feel to them,” said Dr Richard Gregory of the RSPB, one of the paper’s authors.

“Many scientists have used models to predict the future changes in distribution of species responding to climate change, but our paper shows that wildlife has been responding to a changing climate for a quarter of a century at least.

“This discovery has profound consequences for some of our most threatened and declining wildlife and shows that climate change is likely to continue to have an overwhelming impact on the threatened species.”

Northern species that are under threat also include the Slavonian Grebe, a bird whose range extends at its southern margins to Scotland.

The Fieldfare and Redwing – birds that are familiar as winter visitors to bird tables and gardens in the north-east but that breed only locally in parts of Scotland – are also suffering a downturn in numbers.

The authors, using the same climate models, published a Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds earlier this year.

This work showed that, on average, suitable climates for European birds are likely to shift northwards by 550km (340 miles) – a distance equivalent from Plymouth to Newcastle.

The new work has important implications for predicting future trends.
Researchers can now look at what has happened in the past to help predict the future species and numbers of birds in Britain.

Southern birds flourishing in the warmer weather:
• Little egret
• Cetti’s warbler
• Cirl bunting
• Dartford warbler

Northern birds dwindling in the warmer weather:
• Redwing
• Temminck’s stint
• Purple sandpiper
• Shore lark
• Snowy owl