Cambridge tracker suggests new Covid cases in India have peaked
Market intel drawn from a new COVID-19 tracker co-developed by Cambridge Judge Business School suggests that the number of new cases in India has peaked.
Research allies in the UK and India believe a declining trend will be evidenced in the period from now to May 23 but only in some states.
India has been devastated by the number of new cases that have swept the country in recent weeks and which caused postponement of the star-studded IPL cricket tournament.
The tracker developed by Judge and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research – working with Health Systems Transformation Platform in India – provides forecasts of the pandemic’s trajectory based on a recently developed model.
The tracker forms part of a pandemic monitoring series devoted to India and its states and union territories to identify areas at high risk of infection incidence increases.
Forecasts are based on a structural time series model that uses historical data in estimation but adapts to the trend emerging in the most recent period.
The model is described in a paper recently published in Harvard Data Science Review by Andrew Harvey, Emeritus Professor of Econometrics at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Cambridge, and Dr Paul Kattuman, Reader in Economics at Cambridge Judge Business School.
While the tracker forecasts that the number of new cases in India has peaked and will see a declining trend over the two-week forecast period to 23 May there is substantial variation among states and union territories in their trajectories.
Cases will continue to increase over the next two weeks in Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Odisha, Puducherry, Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Tripura.