Tariffs drive down UK exports to US, says MAG
The move away from the US was most stark among manufacturers, as they targeted new territories to mitigate the impact of President Trump’s tariffs, according to the latest UK Trade Barometer. Their order books increasingly featured China, Japan, Australia and several EU nations over the course of the year – a trend that looks set to continue in 2026 according to the publishers of the barometer.
The UK Trade Barometer surveys 2,000 businesses across the country every quarter. It is representative of industrial sectors and UK regions. Run in partnership with YouGov, it asks firms about their global trading habits in the past quarter and their expectations for the quarter ahead.
The latest findings cover Q4 and present the first full picture of the whole of 2025.
Almost half (46 per cent) of all manufacturers said they had increased exports over the last three months in Q4, but only 16 per cent said they had increased sales to the US in Q4 – that has fallen from 25 per cent in Q1. By the end of the year, 12 per cent of manufacturers said they had grown sales to China, a rate that doubled from 6 per cent in Q1. Japan increased from 4 per cent in Q1 to 8 per cent by Q4.
It was a similar story when looking at markets manufacturers broke into for the first time. In the first three months of 2025, 15 per cent reported breaking America. By Q4, it was just 8 per cent. In contrast, by the end of year 9 per cent of manufacturers said they had sold to China for the first time (up from 4 per cent in Q1). Those saying they had cracked Japan grew from 2 per cent in Q1 to 9 per cent in Q4.
Seven different EU states saw strong gains, with France, Germany and Spain become the most popular new European markets by the end of the 2025.
Construction
Construction skills were one of Britain’s strongest exports over the year in January with 92 per cent of construction firms saying they had increased overseas sales . That fluctuated throughout 2025 – 64 per cent in Q2; 86 per cent in Q3 and 67 per cent in Q4 – but at an average of 79 per cent, it was the sector that saw the most export increases each quarter.
Figures for the US started strongly, with 43 per cent saying they grew sales there in Q1 but by Q4, that had dropped to just 18 per cent. By contrast, just 3 per cent said they increased sales to Japan in Q1, which rocketed to 20 per cent by Q4. Ireland, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and New Zealand saw increases over the year.
Financial Services
Financial services had its strongest quarter at the end of 2025, with 59 per cent reporting increased overseas sales, up 8 per cent on Q3. The year began with 25 per cent saying they grew sales to the US and that’s how it ended .
Financial Services was the sector with the highest sales increases to India – with 5 per cent saying they grew sales there in Q4, while Canada grew in popularity (Q4: 11 per cent vs Q1: 5 per cent).
UK regions
All parts of the UK had their weakest three months of overseas sales in Q4 – but the gap between London and the regions widened in the second half. In Q4, 64 per cent of London exporters said they grew overseas sales, compared with 50 per cent in the North, 47 per cent in the Midlands and 44 per cent in the East of England – a 20 percentage point gulf in the most extreme example.
Yet, in Q1, just seven percentage points separated London (76 per cent increasing exports) and the North (69 per cent) and there was only a six percentage point gap in Q2 (London – 63 per cent; North – 57 per cent).
MAG CEO Ken O’Toole said: “As an island trading nation, we know how important our export performance is to the overall economic health of the UK. This full-year data shows the direct impact global events can have on businesses’ order books – but it also shows that British exporters are skilled at diversifying and pivoting to new markets – harnessing the resilience and innovation of our globally trading firms will be important if we want to kick-start growth.
“While some economic indicators point to a potential upturn in growth during the course of 2026, the fact fewer than one in three exporters expect to increase sales in the first part of this year paints a slightly different picture.
“As Government looks to deliver its Industrial Strategy, there is a clear opportunity to be grasped: by growing the number of firms that trade globally, we can boost productivity and living standards in regional growth corridors across the UK, from the Northern Growth Corridor to the Ox-Cam Arc.
“It is vital Government works with business to understand the steps it could take to help more firms trade internationally, including encouraging investment in the infrastructure that unlocks international connectivity.”
Henri Murison, chair of the Growing Together Alliance, said: "Over the course of 2025 we’ve seen a clear recalibration in UK trade patterns. While America remains a vital market, particularly for manufacturers, exporters have increasingly diversified as conditions have shifted. This reflects geopolitical realities, but also the adaptability and resilience of UK firms.
“The pivot to markets like Asia and Europe is notable – and if the Prime Minister can negotiate it then further reduced trade barriers with the latter it would make trade with countries in the European Union easier without allowing accusations of Brexit betrayal that a full-blown customs union could lead to.
“The continued strength of London is welcome, and the priority should now be ensuring that export-led growth is not confined there but supports further increasing productivity across all regions.”
• The UK Trade Barometer is delivered by MAG (which owns and operates Manchester, East Midlands and London Stansted) alongside the Growing Together Alliance of business groups.