That’s right - still no trade deal with the US

It’s hard sometimes to suppress cynicism so please excuse the muted hurrahs for the UK’s new trade deal with CPTPP, a mega trade group in the Indo-Pacific, according to the Government’s Press release. It says the deal “could boost the East of England by £270 million in the long run.”

Why do the words ‘could’ and ‘long run’ send a chill down my spine? And so soon after Michael Gove’s ‘250,000 new houses for the Cambridge area with the creation of a second Silicon Valley.’ And all that on top of pledges of new megamillions for the semiconductor industry and life sciences in the UK – even though the bulk of the projected spend would fall after a potential change of government next year added to criticism of a lack of industrial strategy to underpin either pledge. Will somebody PLEASE pass the blood pressure tablets!

No-one wants to knock initiative but how excited are we supposed to get over what would appear to be overtly pre-General Election hype?

Let’s give Whitehall its say: Trade chiefs add in a Press release that CPTPP investment accounted for £17.7 billion turnover, 716 local businesses and over 34,000 jobs in the East of England in 2019. That was four years ago, of course. No updated figures were given.

With pre-apologies to those readers with hypertension and orders to avoid undue excitement, the UK now has a Free Trade Agreement with Malaysia for the first time, giving businesses far more access to an economy worth £330 billion in GDP in 2022.

Tariffs of around 80 per cent will be eliminated on UK exports of whisky within 10 years and tariffs of 30 per cent on UK exports of cars will be eliminated within seven years, “helping the UK get a larger share of the market,” says the Government publicity. Electric vehicles one hopes – seeing that petrol and diesel cars are an endangered species.

Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch formally signed the treaty confirming the UK’s accession to CPTPP – the Indo-Pacific trade bloc now worth £12 trillion in GDP – in New Zealand at the weekend.

The Government promptly released new figures showing CPTPP-owned businesses employed one in 100 UK workers, with membership equating to over 400,000 jobs across the country. The trade deal still has to be ratified by the parliaments of the trade partners. The Government will now take the steps needed to bring the agreement into force, “expected to be next year.” The word ‘expected’ is as worrying as the ‘next year’ caveat.

The Government says that membership of the trade group is ‘expected’ – there goes that word again – to spark further investment in the UK by CPTPP countries, already worth £182 billion in 2021, by guaranteeing protections for investors. 

Badenoch said: “The deal will be a big boost for British businesses and deliver billions of pounds in additional trade, as well as open up huge opportunities and unparalleled access to a market of over 500 million people.

“We are using our status as an independent trading nation to join an exciting, growing, forward-looking trade bloc, which will help grow the UK economy and build on the hundreds of thousands of jobs CPTPP-owned businesses already support up and down the country.”

(Note from Editor: Do NOT mention migrant workers here).

The Government says that CPTPP companies punch above their weight economically. While they account for 0.3 per cent of all businesses in the UK, they generate 6.1 per cent of the UK’s total turnover – 20 times higher than the proportion of businesses they represent. The UK will be the first European member – other countries possessing brains in Europe have their own ‘club,’ of course – it’s called the EU. The UK was a member before Brexit, of course.

Back to the hype: Being part of CPTPP will mean that more than 99 per cent of current UK goods exports to CPTPP countries will be eligible for zero tariffs. The Government trumpets: “Dairy farmers, for example, will benefit from reduced tariffs on cheese and butter exports to Canada, Chile, Japan and Mexico. This builds on the £23.9 million worth of dairy products we exported to these countries in 2022. 

“The agreement is a gateway to the wider Indo-Pacific which is set to account for the majority of global growth and around half of the world’s middle-class consumers in the decades to come, bringing new opportunities for British businesses and supporting jobs.”

Hand me down my grass skirt and a glass of sake. I feel a wild celebration coming on!